Three tests

The crises awaiting Clinton quickly revealed the pitfalls on the road to a new world order. The most abiding was the civil war in Bosnia and Herzegovina, but the most immediate impact came in Somalia. That East African state had suffered a total breakdown of civil authority, and hundreds of thousands of people were dying of famine as warlords fought for control. During his last days in office Bush had approved Operation Restore Hope for the dispatch to Somalia of some 28,000 American troops. He styled it a humanitarian exercise, and in December 1992 Marines landed safely in Mogadishu, with the aim of turning control of the operation over to the UN as soon as possible. The Clinton administration, however, supported a UN resolution of March 26, 1993, that expanded the mission to include “the rehabilitation of the political institutions and economy of Somalia.” Albright lauded this effort at state-building as “an unprecedented enterprise aimed at nothing less than the restoration of an entire country.”

Clinton officials articulated the principles of their new foreign policy in a series of speeches. Lake explained on September 21, 1993, that democracy and market economics were in the ascendant, so that, just as the United States had previously laboured to contain communism, it should now work for “enlargement” of the community of free nations. Albright outlined the moral, financial, and political benefits of multilateral action in regional disputes, and Clinton defined his goal as nothing less than “to expand the reach of democracy and economic progress across the whole of Europe and to the far reaches of the world.” Within three weeks of Lake’s speech this bold agenda began to unravel. On October 3–4, more than 75 U.S. Army Rangers were wounded in an effort to capture the renegade Somali warlord General Maxamed Farax Caydiid (Muḥammad Farah Aydid), and two American corpses were dragged through the streets of Mogadishu before television cameras. American opinion immediately turned against the intervention, especially when it was revealed that the troops were fighting under UN commanders and had been denied heavy weapons by Secretary of Defense Les Aspin. Clinton was obliged to announce a deadline of March 31, 1994, for evacuation of the troops, which in turn meant abandoning the state-building mission.

Just a week later, the enlargement agenda received another public relations blow when a mob of armed Haitians at Port-au-Prince forced the withdrawal of American and Canadian troops sent to prepare the return of the ousted president, Jean-Bertrand Aristide. That dispute dated from September 30, 1991, when a military coup led by Brigadier General Raoul Cédras had exiled Aristide and imposed martial law. The United States imposed economic sanctions but was preoccupied for the rest of Bush’s term with the question of what to do with the thousands of Haitian boat people fleeing the country for American shores. Clinton embraced Aristide despite his communist sympathies and record of political violence and brokered the Governors Island accord of July 1993, in which Cédras agreed to reinstate Aristide in return for amnesty and the lifting of sanctions. Aristide refused to return, however, until the generals had left Haiti, while Cédras stepped up violence against Aristide’s supporters. It was then that a U.S. ship attempted to intervene, only to be turned back at the dock.

The embarrassments in Somalia and Haiti and the indecision on Bosnia and Herzegovina, combined with military budget cuts exceeding those planned by Bush, provoked charges that the Clinton administration had no foreign policy at all, or an exceedingly ambitious one run from the UN and beyond the capabilities of the U.S. armed forces. To stem the criticism, Clinton issued a presidential directive that outlined precise rules for future deployments abroad. They included the stipulations that a given crisis be susceptible to a military solution with a clearly defined goal, that sufficient force be employed, that a clear end point be identifiable, and that U.S. forces go into combat only under U.S. command. Trimming their sails, Lake and Albright said that the administration would henceforth take multilateral or unilateral action on a case-by-case basis. Dubbed “deliberative multilateralism,” it seemed another example of reactive ad hoc policy making.

A final crisis inherited by Clinton was sparked by the North Korean dictator Kim Il-Sung’s apparent intention to build nuclear bombs and the missiles needed to deliver them. One of the few remaining hard-line Communist regimes, North Korea had agreed to sign the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1985 as the price for receiving Soviet technical aid for its civilian nuclear program. When communism collapsed in Europe, the North Koreans also gave signs of wanting to shed their pariah status. In December 1991 they joined South Korea in a pledge to make the peninsula nuclear-free (thereby obliging the United States to withdraw its own nuclear warheads from the South). By the end of Bush’s term, however, evidence had come to light that the North Koreans were cheating, first, by diverting enriched uranium to military research and, second, by inhibiting inspections. They threatened repeatedly to suspend adherence to the NPT.

Western experts pondered what Kim was up to. Did he mean to go nuclear, perhaps as a last-ditch demonstration to prevent the collapse of his regime? Did he intend to sell bombs and missiles abroad to boost his failing economy? Or did he intend to use his nuclear potential as a bargaining chip in exchange for foreign economic aid? The situation posed a terrible dilemma for the Clinton administration, which had made nonproliferation a top priority. Sooner or later the United States would have to threaten the use of force, either because Kim refused to allow inspections or because inspections revealed that North Korea was in fact building bombs. A threat of force, however, might provoke the mysterious regime in P’yŏngyang into unleashing nuclear or conventional attacks on its neighbours. South Korea and Japan urged caution, while China, North Korea’s only possible ally in the dispute, refused to say whether or not it would support sanctions or help to resolve the dispute. The United States alternated between brandishing carrots and sticks, to which North Korea replied with a bewildering mix of signals that culminated in a June 1994 threat to unleash war against the South.

At the moment of greatest tension, when Clinton was engaging in a military buildup in East Asia and lobbying the UN for sanctions, he suddenly seemed to lose control of policy altogether. On June 15, former President Carter travelled to P’yŏngyang and engaged Kim in negotiations that resulted, four days later, in a tentative agreement. North Korea would gradually submit to international inspections in return for a basket of benefits. At times Clinton seemed unaware of Carter’s activities and at one point even denied that the former president’s words reflected American policy. Negotiations were then delayed by the death of Kim and the accession to power of his son Kim Jong Il. On August 13, however, a nuclear framework accord was signed under which North Korea would remain within the NPT and cease to operate the reactors from which it extracted weapons-grade plutonium. In exchange, the United States would provide North Korea with two light-water reactors, to be paid for by Japan and South Korea, and guarantee North Korea against nuclear attack. The United States would also supply oil to the North to compensate for the energy production lost during the transition and would work toward full diplomatic and economic relations. Because it appeared to reward nuclear blackmail and did not preclude possible future cheating, the pact was criticized in Congress. For the moment, however, Carter’s intervention relieved the crisis.

Almost the same course of events followed in Haiti, only this time with Clinton’s approval. Through September 1994 the Haitian military junta continued its harsh rule in defiance of sanctions and American threats. Clinton’s credibility would suffer further if he failed to act, and he was also under pressure from the Congressional Black Caucus to help Haiti and was anxious to stem the flow of refugees. After receiving UN approval for an invasion, Clinton issued an ultimatum on September 15, advising General Cédras that “Your time is up. Leave now or we will force you from power.” Republicans, however, warned of more bloodshed like that in Somalia if the United States sent in Marines, and so Clinton searched for a way to oust the junta without having Americans fight their way in. On the 17th, even as military units converged on Haiti, he sent Carter and a blue-ribbon delegation to Port-au-Prince. After 36 hours of intense discussions, Cédras agreed to leave the country and order his soldiers not to resist a U.S. occupation, in return for amnesty. The first contingents of Operation Uphold Democracy arrived on the 19th, and President Aristide returned home on October 15. U.S. forces remained until March 1995 and were then replaced by a UN force.