What was the impact of COVID-19?
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On February 25, 2020, a top official at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention decided it was time to level with the U.S. public about the COVID-19 outbreak. At the time, there were just 57 people in the country confirmed to have the infection, all but 14 having been repatriated from Hubei province in China and the Diamond Princess cruise ship, docked off Yokohama, Japan.
The infected were in quarantine. But Nancy Messonnier, then head of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, knew what was coming. “It’s not so much a question of if this will happen anymore but rather more a question of exactly when this will happen and how many people in this country will have severe illness,” Messonnier said at a news briefing.
“I understand this whole situation may seem overwhelming and that disruption to everyday life may be severe,” she continued. “But these are things that people need to start thinking about now.”
Horrific history
Looking back, the COVID-19 pandemic stands as arguably the most disruptive event of the 21st century, surpassing wars, the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, the effects of climate change, and the Great Recession. It has killed more than seven million people to date and reshaped the world economy, public health, education, work, social interaction, family life, medicine, and mental health—leaving no corner of the globe untouched in some way. Now endemic in many societies, the consistently mutating virus remains one of the leading annual causes of death, especially among people older than 65 and the immunosuppressed.
“The coronavirus outbreak, historically, beyond a doubt, has been the most devastating pandemic of an infectious disease that global society has experienced in well over 100 years, since the 1918 influenza pandemic,” Anthony Fauci, who helped lead the U.S. government’s health response to the pandemic under Pres. Donald Trump and became Pres. Joe Biden’s chief medical adviser, told Encyclopædia Britannica in 2024.
“I think the impact of this outbreak on the world in general, on the United States, is really historic. Fifty years from now, 100 years from now, when they talk about the history of what we’ve been through, this is going to go down equally with the 1918 influenza pandemic, with the stock market crash of 1929, with World War II—all the things that were profoundly disruptive of the social order.”
The early days
What few could imagine in the first days of the pandemic was the extent of the disruption the disease would bring to the everyday lives of just about everyone around the globe.
Within weeks, schools and child-care centers began shuttering, businesses sent their workforces home, public gatherings were canceled, stores and restaurants closed, and cruise ships were barred from sailing. On March 11, actor Tom Hanks announced that he had COVID-19, and the NBA suspended its season. (It was ultimately completed in a closed “bubble” at Walt Disney World.) On March 12, as college basketball players left courts mid-game during conference tournaments, the NCAA announced that it would not hold its wildly popular season-ending national competition, known as March Madness, for the first time since 1939. Three days later, the New York City public school system, the country’s largest, with 1.1 million students, closed. On March 19, all 40 million Californians were placed under a stay-at-home order.
By mid-April, with hospital beds and ventilators in critically short supply, workers were burying the coffins of COVID-19 victims in mass graves on Hart Island, off the Bronx. At first, the public embraced caregivers. New Yorkers applauded them from windows and balconies, and individuals sewed masks for them. But that spirit soon gave way to the crushing long-term reality of the pandemic and the national division that followed.
Around the world, it was worse. On the day Messonnier spoke, the virus had spread from its origin point in Wuhan, China, to at least two dozen countries, sickening thousands and killing dozens. By April 4, more than one million cases had been confirmed worldwide. Some countries, including China and Italy, imposed strict lockdowns on their citizens. Paris restricted movement, with certain exceptions, including an hour a day for exercise, within 1 km (0.62 mile) of home.
In the United States, the threat posed by the virus did not keep large crowds from gathering to protest the May 25 slaying of George Floyd, a 46-year-old Black man, by a white police officer, Derek Chauvin. The murder, taped by a bystander in Minneapolis, Minnesota, sparked raucous and sometimes violent street protests for racial justice around the world that contributed to an overall sense of societal instability.
Deaths
The official World Health Organization total of more than seven million deaths as of March 2024 is widely considered a serious undercount of the actual toll. In some countries there was limited testing for the virus and difficulty attributing fatalities to it. Others suppressed total counts or were not able to devote resources to compiling their totals. In May 2021, a panel of experts consulted by The New York Times estimated that India’s actual COVID-19 death toll was likely 1.6 million, more than five times the reported total of 307,231.
An average of 3,100 people—one every 28 seconds—died of COVID-19 every day in the United States in January 2021.
When “excess mortality”—COVID and non-COVID deaths that likely would not have occurred under normal, pre-outbreak conditions—are included in the worldwide tally, the number of pandemic victims was about 15 million by the end of 2021, WHO estimated.
Not long after the pandemic took hold, the United States, which spends more per capita on medical care than any other country, became the epicenter of COVID-19 fatalities. The country fell victim to a fractured health care system that is inequitable to poor and rural patients and people of color, as well as a deep ideological divide over its political leadership and public health policies, such as wearing protective face masks. By early 2024, the U.S. had recorded nearly 1.2 million COVID-19 deaths.
Life expectancy at birth plunged from 78.8 years in 2019 to 76.4 in 2021, a staggering decline in a barometer of a country’s health that typically changes by only a tenth or two annually. An average of 3,100 people—one every 28 seconds—died of COVID-19 every day in the United States in January 2021, before vaccines for the virus became widely available, The Washington Post reported.
The impact on those caring for the sick and dying was profound. “The second week of December [2020] was probably the worst week of my career,” said Brad Butcher, director of the medical-surgical intensive care unit at UPMC Mercy hospital in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. “The first day I was on service, five patients died in a shift. And then I came back the next day, and three patients died. And I came back the next day, and three more patients died. And it was completely defeating,” he told The Washington Post on January 11, 2021.
“We can’t get the graves dug fast enough,” a Maryland funeral home operator told The Washington Post that same day.
Economy
As the pandemic surged in waves around the world, country after country was plunged into economic recession, the inevitable damage caused by layoffs, business closures, lockdowns, deaths, reduced trade, debt repayment moratoriums, the cost to governments of responding to the crisis, and other factors. Overall, the virus triggered the greatest economic calamity in more than a century, according to a 2022 report by the World Bank.
“Economic activity contracted in 2020 in about 90 percent of countries, exceeding the number of countries seeing such declines during two world wars, the Great Depression of the 1930s, the emerging economy debt crises of the 1980s, and the 2007–09 global financial crisis,” the report noted. “In 2020, the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, the global economy shrank by approximately 3 percent, and global poverty increased for the first time in a generation.”
A 2020 study that attempted to aggregate the costs of lost gross domestic product (GDP) estimated that premature deaths and health-related losses in the United States totaled more than $16 trillion, or roughly “90% of the annual GDP of the United States. For a family of 4, the estimated loss would be nearly $200,000.”
In April 2020, the U.S. unemployment rate stood at 14.7 percent, higher than at any point since the Great Depression. There were 23.1 million people out of work. The hospitality, leisure, and health care industries were especially hard hit. Consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of the U.S. economy, plunged.
With workers at home, many businesses turned to telework, a development that would persist beyond the pandemic and radically change working conditions for millions. In 2023, 12.7 percent of full-time U.S. employees worked from home and 28.2 percent worked a hybrid office-home schedule, according to Forbes Advisor. Urban centers accustomed to large daily influxes of workers have suffered. Office vacancies are up, and small businesses have closed. The national office vacancy rate rose to a record 19.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to Moody’s Analytics, which has been tracking the statistic since 1979.
Health and medicine
Many hospitals were overwhelmed during COVID-19 surges, with too few beds for the flood of patients. But many also demonstrated their resilience and “surge capacity,” dramatically expanding bed counts in very short periods of time and finding other ways to treat patients in swamped medical centers. Triage units and COVID-19 wards were hastily erected in temporary structures on hospital grounds.
Still, U.S. hospitals suffered severe shortages of nurses and found themselves lacking basic necessities such as N95 masks and personal protective garb for the doctors, nurses, and other workers who risked their lives against the new pathogen at the start of the outbreak. Mortuaries and first responders were overwhelmed as well. The dead were kept in refrigerated trucks outside hospitals.
The country’s fragmented public health system proved inadequate to the task of coping with the outbreak, sparking calls for major reform of the CDC and other agencies. The CDC botched its initial attempt to create tests for the virus, leaving the United States almost blind to its spread during the early stages of the pandemic.
Beyond the physical dangers, mental health became a serious issue for overburdened health care personnel, other “essential” workers who continued to labor in crucial jobs, and many millions of isolated, stressed, fearful, locked-down people in the United States and elsewhere. Parents struggled to care for children kept at home by the pandemic while also attending to their jobs.
In a June 2020 survey, the CDC found that 41 percent of respondents said they were struggling with mental health and 11 percent had seriously considered suicide recently. Essential workers, unpaid caregivers, young adults, and members of racial and ethnic minority groups were found to be at a higher risk for experiencing mental health struggles, with 31 percent of unpaid caregivers reporting that they were considering suicide. WHO reported two years later that the pandemic had caused a 25 percent increase in anxiety and depression worldwide, young people and women being at the highest risk.
The rate of homicides by firearm in the United States rose by 35 percent during the pandemic to the highest rate in more than a quarter century.
A silver lining in the chaos of the pandemic’s opening year was the development in just 11 months of highly effective vaccines for the virus, a process that normally had taken 7–10 years. The U.S. government’s bet on unproven messenger RNA technology under the Trump administration’s Operation Warp Speed paid off, and the result validated the billions of dollars that the government pours into basic research every year.
On December 14, 2020, New York nurse Sandra Lindsay capped the tumultuous year by receiving the first shot of the vaccine that eventually would help end the public health crisis caused by COVID-19 pandemic.