The 2017 election of Jacinda Ardern

Forming a coalition government

All of this left the centre-right New Zealand First Party, which won nine seats, in the kingmaker role. New Zealand First’s 72-year-old leader, Winston Peters, kept the country in suspense for weeks as he negotiated with both the National Party and Labour over New Zealand First’s potential participation in a coalition government. Finally, on October 19, Peters went on national television to announce that he had chosen to go into a partnership with Labour that would be further dependent on “supply and confidence” support from the Greens. “Far too many New Zealanders have come to view today’s capitalism not as their friend but as their foe,” Peters said in announcing his intention to govern with Labour. Ardern found out at the same time as the rest of the country that she was about to become its 40th prime minister, and she was sworn in on October 26.

In June 2018 Ardern gave birth to her first child, a girl. She thus became the first leader of a country in nearly 30 years to give birth while in office.

The March 2019 mosque attacks in Greater Christchurch

In March 2019 Ardern was called upon to lead and comfort her country in the wake of what she characterized as one of its “darkest days,” after the mass shootings and attack on a mosque in central Christchurch and another on a mosque in suburban Linwood during midday prayers on March 15 resulted in the loss of at least 50 lives and injuries to about 50 other individuals. In both cases the assailant allegedly was a 28-year-old white supremacist Australian national who had posted a 74-page anti-immigrant manifesto on social media immediately prior to beginning his attack with assault rifles and shotguns. Before he was apprehended by police, the gunman—who had streamed the attack on the first mosque on Facebook, apparently using a head-mounted camera—had killed 42 people at the first mosque and another 8 at the second, some 3 miles (5 km) away. According to his rambling hate-filled manifesto, the alleged assailant had come to New Zealand specifically to undertake the attacks to highlight that even a place as remote as New Zealand suffered from “mass immigration.”

The anti-immigrant motivation for the attacks was especially jolting in a country with a reputation for welcoming immigrants. Indeed, Ardern had recently announced that in 2020 New Zealand would be increasing the number of immigrants it accepted annually from 1,000 to 1,500. Ardern labeled the assault a “terrorist attack.” In addressing the country, she said of New Zealand,

We were not a target because we are a safe harbour for those who hate. We were not chosen for this act of violence because we condone racism, because we are an enclave for extremism. We were chosen for the very fact that we are none of these things—because we represent diversity, kindness, compassion, a home for those who share our values, refuge for those who need it.

She then called for changes to New Zealand’s gun laws, a statement that appeared to meet with broad approval in a country where gun ownership was widespread.

Whakaari/White Island tragedy, coronavirus pandemic response, and election to a second term

Ardern’s compassionate but strong response to the mosque attacks earned her praise from around the world, as would her calm, measured reaction when tragedy again befell the country, in December 2019, after a volcanic explosion on remote Whakaari/White Island claimed 22 lives. At the time of the eruption, 47 people (adventure tourists and guides) were on the uninhabited island. The image of Ardern comforting first responders with hugs became iconic.

Notwithstanding the positive perception abroad of Ardern’s leadership, many New Zealanders appeared to be less than satisfied with the prime minister’s record on tackling housing shortages and child poverty, issues that she had pledged to address. As a result the parliamentary election called for September 2020 promised to be a close one. The dynamics of the election were changed, however, by the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic that swept the world, beginning early in 2020. Ardern and her government took a “go hard and go early” approach to the pandemic, responding fast and forcefully by halting foreign visitation to New Zealand in mid-March (becoming one of the first countries to close its borders in response to the global health threat) and imposing a strict nationwide lockdown when just over 100 cases of COVID-19 (the disease produced by the virus) had been confirmed. In the process, the country’s tourism-dependent economy sustained a historically hard blow. GDP tumbled by more than 12 percent in the June 2020 quarter, the steepest quarterly decline in the recorded history of New Zealand’s economy.

At the same time, however, this draconian public health response produced remarkable results, as New Zealand contained the outbreak quickly and thoroughly. By August the country had gone some 100 days without evidence of community spread of the virus. When cases were diagnosed in Auckland that month, the election was postponed until October, and the country was again locked down. But by the time of the election on October 17, however, the virus was again contained, having been limited to about 2,000 cases overall to date, with only 25 deaths nationwide. Mask-wearing and social distancing requirements were removed. Ardern had skillfully overseen the country’s successful response to the pandemic with a combination of science-driven hard-line policies and a deft human touch that included casual empathetic online appearances and a promise to children that the Easter Bunny and Tooth Fairy would be treated as essential workers and allowed to continue to perform their jobs.

Voters rewarded Ardern by handing her a landslide victory. Having captured some 49 percent of the vote, Labour had its best showing at the polls in a half century and stood to become the first party since the introduction of proportional representation in 1993 to be able to form a majority government without a coalition partner. Nevertheless, the Green Party, which had been part of Ardern’s ruling coalition, increased its share of the vote from 6 percent in the last election to 8 percent in that one. All of this came at the expense of the opposition National Party, which fell from 44 percent of the vote in the 2017 election to 27 percent.

In her victory speech, Ardern reached out to all New Zealanders:

We are living in an increasingly polarized world. A place where, more and more, people have lost the ability to see one another’s point of view. I hope that this election, New Zealand has shown that this is not who we are. That, as a nation, we can listen and we can debate. After all, we are too small to lose sight of other people’s perspective.

The road to resignation

The challenges of combating the waves of the more infectious Delta and Omicron variants of COVID-19—which crested in New Zealand in November 2021 and (exponentially more explosively) March 2022, respectively—forced Ardern to abandon her “zero COVID” policy. The focus of her government’s response to the pandemic shifted from lockdowns to an emphasis on vaccination and acceptance of “living with the virus.”  Because of its earlier dependence on walling itself off from transmission of the virus, however, New Zealand had been slow to roll out a vaccination program, which did not begin until February 2021. Roughly a year later nearly 80 percent of New Zealanders were fully vaccinated. At midyear 2022 and during the transition to the new year, New Zealand was buffeted again by new COVID-19 outbreaks.

In the meantime, opposition to Ardern’s COVID-19 policy had grown, first in protests of the prolonged lockdowns and then in the form of resistance to vaccination and vaccination mandates. The Ardern government mandated vaccination for military personnel, police, teachers, doctors, and nurses, and it required vaccine passes for entrance to most restaurants and shops. By 2022 there also was increasing concern among some New Zealanders about economic issues, including the rising cost of living and falling housing values. There was also a perception that violent crime was on the rise. Moreover, some on the left were disappointed by what they viewed as Ardern’s preoccupation with the pandemic and failure to adequately address social issues. Perhaps ironically, Ardern’s international image generally had become only more burnished as she was widely perceived as being a compassionate, highly principled leader and feminist icon.

In its most reactionary and vile manifestations, the backlash against Ardern in New Zealand took the form of conspiracy theories and an ever-increasing number of threats against her life, which, according to police, climbed from 18 in 2019 to 32 in 2020 and to 50 in 2021. Most often the threats cited Ardern’s gun-control, COVID-19, and vaccination policies. The most dramatic protest of Ardern’s leadership came in February 2022, when a large convoy of trucks and cars descended on Wellington, choking traffic and disrupting life in the capital in imitation of the protest that had been staged by hard-line conservatives in Canada. For weeks protestors set up camp outside New Zealand’s parliament (where they set fire to tents and mattresses) before they were forcibly removed by law enforcement officials, resulting in scores of arrests. In October, while Ardern was visiting Antarctica, there was an apparent attempt to break into her office in the Auckland suburb of Morningside.

All of these events took a toll not only on Ardern’s popularity but also, seemingly, on her psyche. For most of 2022 Labour trailed the National Party in preference polling. In December one poll showed support for the National Party at 38 percent whereas support for Labour stood at 33 percent. On January 19, 2023, Ardern, battling tears, announced the shocking news that she intended to stand down as prime minister by February 7. In explaining her departure, Ardern said, in part:

I believe that leading a country is the most privileged job anyone could ever have, but also one of the more challenging. You cannot, and should not do it unless you have a full tank…I know what this job takes, and I know that I no longer have enough in the tank to do it justice. It is that simple.

The Labour Party acted quickly to choose her successor, Chris Hipkins, who was sworn in as prime minister on January 25.