Abiy Ahmed

Changes, reforms, and the Nobel Prize for Peace

Almost immediately Abiy made efforts to bring about dramatic changes regarding strengthening the democratic process, improving the economy, and resolving the country’s long-standing border conflict with Eritrea. In his first year thousands of political prisoners were released, and some opposition groups were removed from the government’s list of organizations that it deemed to be terrorist groups. He later signed a peace agreement with one of the groups, which was designed to end more than 30 years of conflict in the Ogaden region. Measures to encourage investment and boost economic growth were also unveiled. Abiy formed a new cabinet, distinguished not only for its smaller size but also for the number of women that Abiy appointed, which meant that the country had its first gender-balanced cabinet.

The most significant achievement of Abiy and the EPRDF-led government was dramatic progress made in the attempts to find peace with Eritrea. Abiy announced on June 5, 2018, that Ethiopia would adhere to the terms of the 2000 peace agreement that had been intended to end the border war with Eritrea that had begun in 1998. This included accepting and implementing the 2002 ruling that demarcated the border between the two countries, which Ethiopia had previously rejected. The next month, Abiy went to Eritrea to meet with that country’s president, Isaias Afwerki. The two leaders agreed to reestablish ties between the two countries in the areas of diplomacy, trade, communications, and transportation as well as to reopen their borders. This was followed by a momentous joint statement from Abiy and Isaias on July 9 declaring that the state of war that had existed between their two countries for 20 years had come to an end. Abiy also engaged in resolving other regional conflicts, serving as a mediator in conflicts between Eritrea and Djibouti and between Kenya and Somalia and in Sudan’s civil conflict. In 2019 Abiy was the recipient of the Nobel Prize for Peace for his efforts to resolve Ethiopia’s border conflict with Eritrea.

Opposition, conflict, and the 2021 general elections

Although Abiy’s overtures and reform efforts were welcomed and applauded by many, not everyone in Ethiopia was ready to accept such change, which allowed simmering ethnic tensions to be brought to the fore. At a rally in June 2018, a grenade was launched at the stage where Abiy was present; he escaped unscathed, but two people were killed and scores more injured. In June 2019, in what the government labeled a failed coup attempt centred in the Amhara region, several high-ranking officials were killed.

In late 2019 Abiy advocated for the four constituent parties of the EPRDF to dissolve the coalition and replace it with one party that would also include some of the smaller ethnic groups that had not been part of the EPRDF. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which had long been the dominant member of the EPRDF coalition before Abiy took office, had already seen its power diminish under Abiy’s prime ministership, and it now took issue with the coalition dissolution process and refused to participate. Nonetheless, the EPRDF was dissolved, and Abiy formed the Prosperity Party, which included the other three parties that had been part of the EPRDF as well as several smaller, ethnic-based parties that had opted to disband and join Abiy’s new party. With the 2020 general elections officially postponed because of the COVID-19 pandemic, however, the new party’s mettle was not immediately tested at the polls.

The election delay proved to be a contentious issue in some quarters, with the TPLF and some other opposition leaders accusing Abiy of trying to cling to power past his mandate. In spite of the official postponement, the Tigrayan officials held elections in the Tigray region in September 2020; in response, the federal government began withholding funds from the region the following month. The simmering tensions erupted into combat in early November when TPLF forces were accused of having attacked federal military bases in Tigray, after which federal forces invaded the region. Later that month federal troops captured Tigray’s capital, Mekelle, and Abiy declared victory in spite of the fact that skirmishes continued. Controversially, troops from Eritrea also participated in the conflict, attacking Tigrayan forces. Although Eritrean and Ethiopian officials initially denied that Eritrean troops were involved in the conflict, months later Abiy acknowledged their participation.

When the postponed general elections were held in June 2021, the Prosperity Party won an overwhelming majority of parliamentary seats. Meanwhile, the tide had turned in the Tigray regional conflict, with Tigrayan forces going on the offensive and launching attacks on their advance toward Mekelle; they recaptured the capital on June 28. Although the federal government declared a unilateral cease-fire that day, fighting continued and expanded to other regions, leaving Abiy with an escalating conflict and a growing humanitarian crisis.